Why North Carolina Football Can Win the ACC

We are now inside a month until North Carolina kicks off its 2023 college football season. The Tar Heels will open 2023 with a nationally televised game against the South Carolina Gamecocks. The cherry on top? The game will play host to ESPN Gameday! North Carolina, coming off a 9-4 season that saw them lose their last 3 games, has won just two bowl games in 12 seasons. So why did ESPN choose a neutral site game featuring North Carolina as small betting favorites? Because they see what many Tar Heel fans are beginning to see; North Carolina can do severe damage this season.

The Schedule

So much of college football success relies upon timing. In this era where you often play the same opponents alternating home field, it can be paramount that certain elements of the schedule line up if you want to have a special season. For North Carolina, the stars seem to have aligned.

Starting with their out-of-conference schedule, North Carolina plays 4 games outside the ACC. One of these games, the aforementioned national television showdown against South Carolina, will come on a neutral site while the other three will be played in Chapel Hill.

When conference play starts, the first domino is who isn’t on the schedule. The Tar Heels will not be playing Florida State nor Louisville, two of the four betting favorites to win the conference. As far as who the Tar Heels do play, 4 of the first 6 ACC games they play will come at home. One of the Tar Heels’ two road games during that stretch comes against Georgia Tech, projected to be the worst team in the conference. The other road game will come against ACC Coastal rival Pittsburgh. This will likely be (along with a showdown against Miami in Chapel Hill) the most important game the Tar Heels play in the 2023 season.

All of this is to say expectations should be high for the Tar Heels’ season. It’s not unreasonable to expect them to be 8-2 or 9-1 heading into Clemson in November. And even though the last two games of the season will be tough (@Clemson, @North Carolina State), the fact that they are significant betting favorites to win their half of the ACC is informative as to what the oddsmakers think of the Tar Heels’ chances against their schedule.

The Team

Make no mistake, while a schedule is important, you still need players to go out on the field and execute. This year’s North Carolina Tar Heels football team could be their most loaded roster in recent memory.

Of course, this starts with Drake Maye. Maye, recently voted to the All-ACC team and ACC Preseason Player of the Year, is expected to be relevant in Heisman Trophy conversations. The dual-threat quarterback will be surrounded by talented skill-position players. They are deep at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Perhaps their biggest offensive strength, however, will be their offensive line. North Carolina is bringing back four fifth-year seniors to help protect Maye and open up lanes for their vast array of running backs.

Continuing a trend from recent years, the biggest question mark comes on the other side of the ball. As great as the offense can be, the ceiling of this team will ultimately lie in the competence of the defense. Coming off a season where the defense was last in the conference in almost every significant category, the Tar Heels upgraded their defense through the transfer portal and recruiting, and folks within the program are cautiously optimistic that their defense could surprise some folks.

Put it all together and expectations are as high as they’ve been for a football team in Chapel Hill in quite some time. The pressure is on Mack Brown and his squad to deliver a season worthy of the hype. The Tar Heels start their season in Charlotte, I expect them to finish it there as well.