UNC Draft Prospects Slipping
With the 2023 NBA Draft less than a month away, Bleacher Report released a full Mock Draft projecting all 60 picks each NBA team will make to try and improve their franchise’s fortunes going forward. There were players from almost every collegiate conference, the G-League, and multiple foreign countries including New Zealand, Serbia, and Spain. Perhaps most jarring, however, is that this mock draft projected zero North Carolina Tar Heels having their names called by Commissioner Adam Silver for the second straight season.
If Bleacher Report’s mock draft holds, which it almost certainly will, this would mark the first time since 2004 that North Carolina went two consecutive drafts without having a player drafted. North Carolina is supposed to be one of the few true blue-blood college programs in the country. Yet they seem to be going in the opposite direction of their peers. There are just nine players currently in the NBA who were drafted out of North Carolina. For comparison, 25 former Duke Blue Devils are in the NBA, five of whom were drafted just last year.
How is this hurting UNC?
It would be nice if we could take a glass-half-full approach. Maybe argue that while other teams are playing checkers, focusing solely on the short-term NBA prospects, North Carolina is playing chess and focusing on the long-term. This does not appear to be the case. North Carolina is trying to recruit just like any other big-time program, but for whatever reason, the players do not seem to be popping the way they do at other programs.
There also seems to be difficulty bringing some of the big fish to Chapel Hill. After having the 2nd ranked recruiting class in 2020, the Tar Heels have fallen outside of the top 10 in each of the last three seasons. This year’s class, ranked 13th, is the highest-ranked class since the one in 2020.
What can Hubert Davis Do?
As I noted in the last article I wrote about Roy Williams, Hubert Davis seems to be approaching a fork in the road. The inability to develop NBA talent did not randomly coincide with Davis’ promotion to Head Coach. His predecessor was also struggling to get his guys into the NBA. Watch any NBA Draft and it may as well be one giant advertisement for John Calipari. “Come play for me and your dream of playing in the NBA is almost guaranteed.”
But Williams wasn’t as successful. In fact, of the nine Tar Heels currently in the NBA, only three, Danny Green, Harrison Barnes, and Cam Johnson, have had a real modicum of individual success. And while one could argue Barnes has underachieved based on the expectations he had coming out of high school, it would behoove Davis to hone in on what Williams did for Green and Johnson going forward.
The NBA has become largely about two subsets of players; stars and players who can stay on the court with stars. Players who become stars essentially do so despite their surroundings. For example, I do not believe that Jayson Tatum would not have become the player he is today had he gone to North Carolina.
It is the latter group where North Carolina may be falling short. To stay on the court as a role player in today’s NBA two skillsets are vital; defense and shooting. College basketball is a tricky game because, as a coach, your primary goal needs to be to win each game. But to win at an elite rate you need elite players, and, like it or not, today’s pool of players is both as informed and self-motivated as ever. They want to go to a place where they’ll be properly prepared to play at the NBA level.
Lately, North Carolina has skewed that balance too far toward trying to win games. Oftentimes you see a product that does not remotely resemble the pro game. If Hubert Davis wants to right the ship and bring glory back to Franklin Street, it is on him to modernize the style of basketball played in the Dean Smith Center.
